Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
